中文摘要：

因为没有一致在在中国的夏天气候怎么将在 第21 世纪的第一一半演变的以前的研究被到达了，这个问题被强迫一个大气的一般发行量模型( AGCM )通过敏感实验这里处理，地球物理的液体动力学实验室( GFDL )的大气的模型版本 2.0 ( AM2 )与投射的海出现温度( SST )趋势。从气候上的面板改变的 Intergovernmental (IPCC ) 的二个 SST 趋势的一个总数排出物情形(SRES ) A1B 上的特殊报告被使用。二个趋势来自二个联合气候系统模型，大气的研究(NCAR ) 社区气候系统模型版本 3.0 的国家中心(CCSM3 ) 和 GFDL 气候为版本 2.0 建模(CM2 ) 分别地。结果一致地建议在许多中国上的趋势的实质的温暖并且弄干，随 1.0-2.0 楣 ? 獡数瑣 ? 景眠獥整湲映牯獥 ? 敤潭牧灡票蠼 ? 蠼的表面空气温度增加吗？？

英文摘要：

Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory （GFDL）＇s Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 （AM2） with projected sea surface temperature （SST） trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenario （SRES） AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 （CCSM3） and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 （CM2）, respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of China, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern China to western North China as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North China has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South China Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern China, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.