中文摘要：

以广东省21个地市作为基本研究对象,以人均旅游收入作为衡量旅游业发展水平高低的指标,运用灰色预测方法、空间自相关分析及空间回归分析等方法探讨了广东省2000-2012年及2017年旅游业发展水平区域差异的时空演化特征.结果表明：（1）广东省各地市的旅游业发展水平在空间上存在明显的全局空间自相关性（依赖性）,且这种依赖性程度在不断加强,说明广东省区域旅游业发展水平的总体空间差异较小,并有进一步缩小的趋势;（2）广东省区域旅游业发展水平空间格局相对稳定,空间差异变化不大,珠三角地区形成了较稳定的高值（HH）集聚区域,而粤东、粤西地区则形成了稳定的低值（LL）集聚区域;（3）广东省区域旅游业发展水平局域空间自相关性较弱,在时空演变过程中形成了稳定的HH型聚集中心、LH型聚集中心和LL型聚集中心;（4）影响区域旅游业发展水平空间差异的主要因素为经济发展水平和区位条件.

英文摘要：

Based on the index of per capita tourism income, the 21 regions in Guangdong province were taken as research objects to analyse the spatial-temporal evolution of the tourism development from 2000 years to 2012 years and 2017 years in Guangdong Province by the methods of grey prediction,spatial autocorrelation and spa- tial regression.The results showed that the characteristic of global spatial autocorrelation of the tourism develop- ment level of different regions in Guangdong was obvious,and this trend became stronger and stronger. It shows that the region difference of tourism development in Guangdong was small and the spatial pattern of region tourism development was stable. The change of spatial difference was small and the local spatial autocorrelation of the tourism development level of different regions was not obvious. The different gather centers have been formed （HH gather centre,LH gather centre and LL gather centre）and the spatial difference of tourism development was influenced mainly by economic development and location condition.