中文摘要：

金融危机以来,需要从理论上详尽研究中国宏观波动中外部冲击的具体影响。本文在金融加速器理论的基础上,构造了随机动态一般均衡模型,基于中国的季度数据考察经济波动中的外部冲击效应,数值模拟的结果与实际经济运行基本吻合,对实际经济中产出和投资的波动解释力较强,结论认为汇率冲击和国外需求冲击都具有明显的双重作用,人民币升值带来的负面影响更大一些,国外需求下降则没有想象中那么可怕,可以通过内需的扩大带动中国经济走出低谷。

英文摘要：

Since the financial crisis,we need a detailed theoretical study of Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations in the specific impact of external shocks.In this paper,we establish a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model based on the financial accelerator theory,according to China’s economic fluctuations in quarterly data to study the effects of external shocks.The results of numerical simulation are coincident with the real economy,moreover output and investment have the better consequence.We conclude that both foreign exchange rate shock and foreign demand shock have bilateral effect.The appreciation of RMB has larger negative effect,while the decrease in foreign demand may not be as disastrous as we have imagined.By stimulating domestic consumption and investment,China can eliminate the impact of the decline in external demand.