中文摘要：

气象灾害风险评估是气象防灾减灾的基础和前提。针对当前灾害风险评估过程中模型参数多依靠专家打分,人为因素影响大的问题,提出了＂制定承灾体易损性分类体系→构造承灾体易损性判断矩阵→计算承灾体易损性参数＂的定量确定承灾体易损性参数技术方法。选择20世纪80年代以来山东省潍坊市干旱和暴雨洪涝各4次灾害过程,分别计算了经济易损性参数和人口易损性参数。结果表明：同一灾种历次灾害过程确定的承灾体易损性参数相对稳定,承灾体易损次序完全一致,算法具有良好的稳定性。同一灾种承灾体的经济易损性参数和人口易损性参数差异明显,不同灾种的承灾体易损性参数存在差异显著。通过承灾体易损性参数在一定程度上能揭示出灾害与承灾体之间的内在作用规律。承灾体易损性空间分布与地方社会经济结构有关,就潍坊市而言,干旱灾害的经济易损性承灾体以旱地为最大,其次为林地,再次为草地;人口易损性承灾体以城镇用地和农村居民点为主,其次为旱地。暴雨洪涝灾害的经济易损性承灾体以旱地、农村居民点、城镇用地为主,且其经济易损性程度相当,林地的经济易损性也不可忽视;人口易损性承灾体主要为农村居民点和城镇用地,较干旱灾害更为集中。可为研究不同地区、不同灾种承灾体易损性提供定量分析手段。

英文摘要：

Meteorological disaster risk assessment is the basis and prerequisite of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.At present,the parameters of disaster risk assessment models are mostly determined by means of experts scoring,so artificial errors are inevitable.A quantitative method is raised to calibrate the parameters of the vulnerability of disaster bearing body（VDBB）.The method has three steps,i.e.,first is the establishment of classification system of VDBB,second is the build of judgment matrix of VDBB,third is the calculation of the parameters of VDBB.Taking four processes of drought and flood disasters in Weifang since 1980s respectively as case studies,the economy and population vulnerability parameters are determined.The result shows that the vulnerability parameters for the same type of disaster are consistent,which represents the method has high stability.The result also shows that the economy vulnerability parameters and population vulnerability parameters for the same type of disaster have significant differences,the vulnerability parameters for different types of disaster are quite different as well,which represents the method has the capability to reveal the internal relation between disaster and its bearing body.The spatial distribution of VDBB is highly related to local socio-economic structure.In Weifang,for drought disaster,the most economy vulnerable bearing body is dry land,followed by forest land and grassland;the most population vulnerable bearing bodies are urban land and rural residential land,followed by dry land.For flood disaster,the most economy vulnerable bearing bodies are dry land,rural residential land and urban land,i.e.the economy vulnerability of these three kinds of lands are comparative,but the economy vulnerability of forest land can’t be ignored,the most population vulnerable bearing bodies are rural residential land and urban land mainly,it was more concentrated than drought disaster.The method could provide a quantitative technique for the analysis of VDBB i