中文摘要：

利用美国大气研究中心（NCAR）提供的2组数值试验结果对比，分析了只考虑温室气体增加（1％CO2试验）和综合考虑大气温室气体与气溶胶持续增加（50yrs试验）条件下，青藏高原地区地表温度、积雪深度及其他气候要素的变化，并在此基础上探讨了大气气溶胶含量变化对高原气候变化的可能影响。分析结果表明：只考虑大气CO2含量每年增加1％的变化时，青藏高原相对邻近地区地表温度显著增加，春、夏、秋及冬季地表温度线性增温率均表现出随着海拔高度升高而增强。例如，在海拔1．5-2km，3—3．5km和4．5～5km范围内对应的冬季增温趋势分别为0．29℃／10a,0．36℃／10a和0．50℃／10a。在温室气体引起的高原增暖过程中地表积雪深度普遍降低，且高海拔地区的积雪减少愈加明显。当综合考虑气溶胶和温室气体含量共同增加时，青藏高原地表增暖相对偏弱，春、夏和秋季增温也随海拔高度上升而加强，但冬季地面增温幅度随海拔上升反而下降，海拔1．5～2km，3～3．5km和4．5—5km范围内对应的冬季增温趋势分别为0．02℃／10a，-0．03℃/10a和-0．13℃／10a。对比分析发现，大气气溶胶增加造成青藏高原冬季增温不明显甚至出现变冷趋势，地面积雪也随之增多，这可能歪曲了青藏高原地区气候变暖对海拔高度的依赖性。

英文摘要：

The characteristics of surface air temperature, snow depth and other climatic elements are analyzed on the basis of outputs from the Exp. 1% CO2 in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased by 1% per year and Exp. 50yrs in which the observed increasing atmospheric aerosol and CO2 concentrations are used. We discussed the effects of the aerosol on climate change over the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that there exists a significant elevation dependency of surface climate warming, i.e. the warming trend increases with the elevation in a high - altitude region and its surroundings in spring, summer, autumn and winter in Exp. 1% CO2. For example, the linear warming trends of surface air temperature reach 0. 29, 0.36 and 0. 50℃/10 a for 3 zones with elevations in the range of 1.5 -2 km, 3 -3.5 km and 4.5 -5 km, respectively. With the climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau, the snow depth decreases, which is more markedly at high - altitude region than its surroundings in Exp. 1% CO2. In Exp. 50yrs, however, the linear warming trend of surface air temperature is weak, though it is prominent at high elevations than at low elevations in the Tibetan Plateau and the surroundings in spring, summer and autumn over Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the trend of surface air temperature is 0.02, -0.03 and -0. 13 ℃/10 a for 3 zones with elevations in the range of 1.5 -2 km, 3 -3.5 km and 4.5 -5 km, respectively. The relatively weak warming revealed in the Exp. 50yrs may be related to the increasing atmospheric aerosol concentration originated from South and East Asia during the past decades.