中文摘要：

20世纪50年代以后,柳林泉流量日益减少,人类活动成为其衰减的主要原因。通过分阶段应用灰色系统模型,定量地描述人类活动对柳林泉水文过程的影响。第一阶段（1957~1973年）,柳林泉水流量只受自然条件的影响,第二阶段（1974~2009年）柳林泉水流量受自然条件和人类活动的双重影响。运用灰色关联分析和GM时滞模型,通过比较分析得到人类活动对柳林泉水文过程的影响。结果显示：人类活动导致泉水流量相对于降水量的时间滞后由0年增长到4年,即地下水压力波在传播过程中受到人类活动的干扰,强度被削弱,传播速度变缓。降水量对泉水流量的灰作用系数由第一阶段的1.127 2×10-2下降到了第二阶段的7.75×10-3,说明由于人类活动使降水量对泉水流量的补给强度减弱。

英文摘要：

The flow of the Liulin springs has been declining since 1950s.It is believed that human activities is main reason to karst springs flow attenuation.The effect of human activities on hydrological process of Liulin springs was quantitatively described by using grey system.In the first stage（1957~1973）,the flow of Liulin springs was only effected by natural conditions.In the second stage（1974~2009）,the flow of Liulin springs was effected by climate and human activities.By using grey relational and GM model with time lags,we set up the hydrological models of Liulin springs for the two stages.Then the effect of human activities on Liulin spring flow was acquired by model comparison.The results show that the time lags between spring discharge and precipitation increase from 0 to 4 years.The groundwater pressure wave is disturbed by human activities.The strength of groundwater pressure wave is weaken,velocity slowed.The grey interaction coefficients reduce from 1.1272×10-2 in the first stage to 7.75×10-3 in the second stage.That is human activities lead to groundwater recharge decreasing.