中文摘要：

根据岩溶地下水的运动特征,提出了岩溶地下水压力波形成与传播的概念模型,运用灰色系统理论建立了岩溶地下水的水文模型,包括泉水流量对降水量水力响应时间的求解方法及泉水流量对降水量的响应模型,并以山西柳林泉为研究对象,建立了泉水流量对泉域内不同区域降水量的水力响应时间求解模型。结果表明,泉域南部岩溶裸露区的水力响应时间为1年;泉域北部岩溶覆盖区的水力响应时间为7年,所得结论与泉域地质构造一致。基于南、北二区的水力响应时间,建立了带有时滞的描述泉水流量与降水量关系的GM（1,3）模型,模型回代检验的平均误差为6.05%;模型预测检验的平均误差为12.19%。研究证明,岩溶地下水的运动过程是压力波的形成与传播过程,泉水流量是地下水系统对大气降水的响应;水力响应时间是反映岩溶地下水压力波特性的主要参数,通过它可以实现对岩溶地下水过程的定量化描述和含水层的非均质性识别,基于岩溶地下水压力波传播原理建立的泉水流量对泉域内降水的响应模型可以比较准确地模拟泉水流量,为岩溶地下水资源的开发利用和保护提供了基础资料。

英文摘要：

Based on the characteristics of movement of karst groundwater,this paper provides a concept model of the rise and propagation of karst groundwater pressure wave.By using the grey system theory,we propose a karst hydrological model including calculation of hydraulic response time between spring discharge and precipitation,and a response model of spring discharge to precipitation.Moreover,we selecte the Liulin Springs Basin as a research object,and calculate the hydraulic response time of Liulin Springs discharge to precipitation of the the south and north part,respectively.The results show that the hydraulic response time is 1 year in the south part,and 7 years in the north part.Hydraulic response time reasonably reflects the karstification degree in the Liulin Springs Basin.The grey system GM（1,3） response model of the spring discharge to precipitation in south and north part of the Liulin Springs basin is set up by considering the hydraulic response time.The model calibration shows that the average error is 6.05% and validation shows that average error is 12.19%.The results reveal that the karst groundwater circulation is a process of rise and propagation of pressure wave.Karst spring discharge is the response of groundwater system to regional precipitation.The hydraulic response time is an important parameter reflecting the characteristics of a karst groundwater system.