中文摘要：

通过回归分析等方法研究了石羊河流域气候变化和农业生产发展对地下水水位的影响。研究结果认为从长期看流域内降水量、蒸发量对地下水的影响不大，武威地区降水量和蒸发量对地下水位的影响系数在0．004以内，民勤地区降水量和蒸发量的影响系数在0．001以内，影响较小；而径流量与粮食产量的变化是地下水水位下降的主要原因，武威和民勤地区径流量对地下水位的影响系数分别为1．381和6．008；并使用最小二乘回归模型确定了地下水水位用径流量和总产量表达的关系式，经验证，模型有较高的模拟精度，预测将来武威地下水水位平均每年将下降0．945m，民勤地下水水位将下降0．919m。

英文摘要：

Shiyang River Basin is located in the east of Hexi Corridor in the Gansu Province. It is one of the most serious water shortage and ecological vulnerable regions. Finding out the relationship between groundwater and natural conditions and human activities has important practical significance to research and solve the water resource utilization and ecological problems. Regression analysis method was used to study the influence of the basin climate change and agricultural production and development to the groundwater level in Shiyang River Basin. The results indicate that rainfall and evaporation have a small impact on groundwater in the long run. The influence coefficient of rainfall and evaporation on the groundwater level in Wuwei region was below 0. 004, meanwhile the influence coefficient was below 0. 001 in Minqin region. However,runoff and change of grain yield are the primary causes of decline in groundwater level. The coefficients of runoff impact on the groundwater level in Wuwei and Minqi region were 1. 381 and 6. 008. At last, through the least squares regression model, an equation was determined, which describes the relationship between groundwater level and runoff, total output. The model has higher simulation accuracy after verification. Wuwei average groundwater level forecast to fall 0. 945 m per year, while 0. 919 m per year in Minqin in the future.