基于PSR模型对1999-2008年长春低碳生态城市发展情况和影响效应进行了研究.结果表明:1999-2008年长春市人均碳排放量由平稳转向快速上升,2003和2007年,最高值分别达0.708 t/人和1.307 t/人;而碳排放足迹从1999年的0.076 hm2/人上升到2008年的0.202 hm2/人,两者密切相关.城市碳排放影响效应分析显示,2000-2003年结构和强度效应影响显著,2004-2008年发展与生产效应贡献增大.医药、装备制造业对提升能源利用效益优于传统产业.长春市碳足迹生态压力呈现波动变化态势,排放与经济发展间未达到完全脱钩情景.
The article constructed PSR evaluation index system to estimated the development of Changchun and the influence factors from 1999 to 2008.The carbon emission per capita converted from steady to rapid growth from 1999 to 2008,the carbon emission per capita was 0.708 t/per,the highest was 1.307 t/per in 2003 and 2007.Moreover,carbon footprint per capita of city set up from 0.076 hm2/per in 1999 to 0.202 hm2/per in 2008.The carbon footprint was bound up with carbon emission.Base on the LMDI analysis,the intensity effect and structure effect are notable during 2000 to 2003,the development and productive effect were exponential growth from 2004 to 2008.The benefit of Medicine and equipment manufacturing were better than the traditional industries.The EPICF showed two fast growth phase.the increase of carbon emission disconnect economic development.