中文摘要：

在贫困脆弱性和贫困动态理论的逻辑归纳与阐述基础上,利用辽宁省重点贫困县调查样本数据,采用聚类分析、脆弱度分析以及敏感度分析等方法实际测度了贫困县贫困状态的分布情况和脆弱程度;从贫困动态的角度,对贫困户1997—2006年间的贫困发生频次、深度及持续时段进行了统计分析。研究发现,各个贫困县的贫困脆弱性程度存在一定的差异,且受多重致贫因素的影响呈现出一定的类型分布特征;贫困动态的分析在一定程度上支持了贫困脆弱度的结果;贫困时段分析与以往研究发现略有不同,呈现出＂暂时贫困＂和＂长期贫困＂二者＂并重＂的特征,而非＂单一分布＂的＂偏态＂,真正有效率的扶贫救济制度应当准确地锁定在持续贫困的家庭上,政策相应地要具有差异性和弹性,这样才有可能快速及时地解决攻坚阶段的贫困问题。

英文摘要：

Based on the logic analysis and systematic discussion of poverty vulnerability and poverty dynamics,taking key poverty-stricken counties in Liaoning province as sample data,researching methods such as cluster analysis,vulnerability analysis and sensitivity analysis are put into use to the empirical analysis of the distribution of county poverty and the degree of vulnerability.Also,from the dynamic point of view of poverty,a statistical analysis of poor households between 1997 and 2006 has been carried out as well as the frequency of incidence of poverty,poverty depth,and the time-spell distribution of poverty.Our study has found that different poor counties may have different degree of vulnerability,and the poverty caused by multiple factors displayed some type of distribution characteristics.To some extent,the poverty dynamics analysis can support for the result of the analysis of poverty vulnerability degree.The result from our poverty time-spell analysis shows some subtle differences from previous findings： the duration of poverty in our sample poor counties showing characteristics of both ＂temporary poor＂ and ＂chronic poverty＂ as double features,not a ＂single skewed distribution＂ found in the traditional analysis.Accordingly,really effective poverty relief policy should accurately locked in the chronic poverty and have differences and accordingly elastic,so that it was possible timely solve the problem of poverty at crucial stage.