中文摘要：

基于1990年和2004年的TM遥感影像数据,借助遥感图像处理软件ERDAS、ENVI和地理信息系统软件Arc GIS进行分析,得到商丘市两个时相的土地利用转移矩阵。采用了土地利用动态度、土地利用开发度、土地利用耗减度、土地利用程度综合指数等模型对土地利用状况进行定量分析评价,并通过Markov链对商丘市2018年、2032年的土地利用结构进行了预测。研究结果表明,14年间商丘市主城区土地利用格局发生了巨大变化,尤以耕地和建设用地变化显著,期间耕地面积减少了208.38 km^2,而建设用地增加了141.89 km^2。最后,基于耕地压力指数分析了耕地数量的变化对于该农业大市的粮食安全的影响,商丘市的粮食安全问题日益严重,迫切需要保护耕地的数量和质量。

英文摘要：

Eased on TM images in 1990, 2004, with the help of RS and G1S, the land use transformation matrix of two periods was calculated to evaluate the dynamic change of land use. A series of indexes were used to evaluate the land use change, such as degree of dynamic land use change, degree of exploitation, degree of land depletion, comprehensive index of land use extent. The Markov process had been applied to analyze and predict the variation tendency of land use in 2018 and 2032. The results showed that in the past 14 years, the structure of land use had a great change, especially the arable land and construction land, reduced 208.38 km^2 , 141.89 kmz respectively. Also, index of arable land pressure was introduced to analyze the effect of arable land reduction on food se- curity. The analysis results predicted that food security of Shangqiu city is increasingly serious. It is essential to protect the quantity and quality of arable land.