中文摘要：

以山西兴县某典型黄土斜坡为例，结合TRIGRS模型与Rosenblueth点估法，研究了降雨对浅层黄土滑坡的影响。根据室内试验、现场人工模拟降雨试验确定了主要参数值，计算了研究区的失稳破坏概率，并探讨了不同降雨阶段、不同坡度对区域斜坡破坏概率的影响。研究表明此方法适合计算降雨诱发的浅层滑坡，得出的滑坡破坏概率分布图可以在一定程度上反映该地区滑坡灾害的空间分布特征。

英文摘要：

Combineing the TRIGRS model and the Rosenblueth point estimate method, a typical loess slope in Xing County, Shanxi Province, was used to study the impact of rainfall on the shallow loess landslide destruc-tion probability. The main parameter values were determined through laboratory experiments and field artificial rainfall simulated tests, the destruction probability calculated, and the impact of different rainfall stages and gradients on the slope destruction probability in the region discussed. The results showed that this method is suitable for calculating rainfall-induced shallow landslides. A landslide destruction probability distribution map was obtained with this method, which, to certain extent, can reflect the space distribution characteristics of landslide disaster in the region.