本文在总结以前学者有关债务期限结构分析的基础上,提出了债务期限结构与利率波动之间可能存在正反馈机制。通过对经筛选的我国上市企业面板数据的实证分析,发现银行间同业拆借利率可以较好地反映企业债务期限结构的变化。而分行业的实证分析则表明,利率波动加剧会使绝大多数行业的短期债务比例降低,呈现显著负相关关系。但现阶段我国的利率形成受企业债务期限结构变化的影响不明显,长短期的面板Granger因果检验无法通过。最后,本文从利率风险及利率期限结构的角度对我国上市公司特殊的债务结构给出了新的解释。
Based on the research of corporate debt maturity structure , this article poiuts out that the positive feedback system possibly existed between interest risk and corporate debt maturity structure. Through panel dada analysis of Chinese listed corporations, we found that the volatility of interest rate of inter-bank market can effectively reflect the investment & financing activities of Chinese listed corporations. Furthermore, the relationship between them is negative. However, the changes of corporate debt maturity structure could not channel off the construction of market interest rate, based on the results of panel data Granger Casualty Tests. In the end, we explained the special phenomenon of the debt maturity structure in China, on the view of interest risk and interest maturity structure.