经济周期带来的价格变化使得企业的盈利和现金流也随之变化,造成风险的原因不是周期的上升或下降。而是周期上升或下降的频繁程度及其大小。面板数据模型研究表明,实际利率的影响是负的,通胀波动性对债务期限结构有显著的负影响。通货膨胀率和预期通货膨胀率都与资产负债率和债务期限结构显著的正相关。
The price change caused by economic cycle fluctuation leads to the change of enterprises' profit and cash flow. Risks are caused not by the rise or fall of economic cycle, but its frequency and range. Through panel data model, we find that the impacts of real interest rates is negative, inflation volatility has a significant negative impact on debt maturity structure. Inflation and expected inflation rates are all positively associated with assets liabilities ratio and debt maturity structure.