本文在国内外诸多研究成果的基础上,首次使用2004年以来中国的季度数据并剔除季节影响,应用单位根检验、协整关系检验、向量误差修正模型(VECM)论证了电力消费和经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系。结果表明,电力消费是经济增长的强格兰杰因,为我们透过电力消费把握经济走势提供了实证支撑。
This article presents the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China using quarterly data since 2004,applying unit root test,cointegration test and vector error correction model.It reveals that electricity consumption is the granger cause of economic growth in the long run and in the short run.The results provide an empirical support for anticipating the economical trend through the electricity consumption.