利用面板数据的VAR模型,以国内旅游经济增长自身发展变化、宏观经济发展、居民收入水平和通货膨胀为影响因素,探讨国内旅游经济增长波动的冲击源和波动的成因。结果显示,造成中国国内旅游经济增长的冲击和波动的成因主要来源于国内旅游经济增长自身的发展变化和宏观经济发展,居民收入水平和通货膨胀对国内旅游经济增长波动虽有影响,但强度不大。该结论对中国国内旅游经济增长的稳定持续发展无疑具有重要的政策指导意义。
Based on the influencing factors of changes of economic growth itself, macro economic development, residents' income level and inflation, Using panel data of VAR model, this study discusses the shocks and fluctuation of domestic tourism growth. The results show that the shocks and fluctuation of China' s domestic tourism eeonomic growth mainly come from the ehangs of domestic tourism economic growth itself and maero e- conomic development. Residents' income level and inflation have an slight impact on domestic tourism economie growth fluctuation. Undoubtedly, the conclusion of this paper will have a important policy implications to the stable development of China's domestic tourism growth .