中文摘要：

为了对高速铁路牵引变电所安全可靠运行进行科学分析，根据高铁牵引变电所运行的相关经验与特点，从风险评估的原理及方法入手，结合人员、环境、管理和设备四大影响因素构建了高铁牵引变电风险评估的层次模型，运用模糊数学理论，提出基于改进模糊层次分析与熵权法相结合的风险评估方法来计算系统的综合权重向量。将以往模糊评判中通过最大隶属度原则来确定系统的等级归属改为评分机制，把综合权重转化为系统的分数值，根据其所在的分数区域确定系统所处的风险等级。实例结果表明：综合权重的方法能真实地反映系统所处的风险水平，充分利用系统的风险评估原始信息，评分机制相比于传统最大隶属度原则更为科学，克服了最大隶属度原则的一些缺点，为高铁牵引变电所的管理人员提供依据与指导。

英文摘要：

In order to provide a scientific analysis of safe and reliable operation of the high speed railway tractionsubstation,according to the principle and method of risk assessment and combining with four major factors ofpersonal,environment,management and equipment,a hierarchical model was established.By using the theory offuzzy mathematics,a risk assessment method based on improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropyweight method was proposed to compute integrated weight vector of the system.Changing from the principle ofmaximum degree of membership to determine the rank attribution of the system in the past fuzzy evaluation to thescoring mechanism,the integrated weight vector was transformed into fraction value of the system.The risk levelof the system was determined according to fraction value with respect to the score value of area.The exampleresults suggest the risk level of the system can be truly reflected by integrated weight,making full use of the riskassessment of original information.Compared to the traditional maximum membership degree principle,thescoring mechanism is more scientific and overcomes some shortages of the maximum membership degreeprinciple.Therefore,it can provide guidance to managers of high speed railway traction substation.