产业结构与城市化之间存在一种最优匹配关系。本文从理论上界定了产业结构演变城市化响应的三级响应模式,中国目前正处于中级响应模式,且即将进入到高级响应模式。统计分析显示中国产业结构和就业结构不协调导致城市化响应与理论模式不一致。进一步运用向量自回归模型进行研究表明:中国第二、第三产业均能给城市化带来持续的正的作用,但是城市化的快速发展不能对二三产业的发展起强有力的支撑作用。因此必须通过技术创新和集聚经济作用来增强产业结构演变城市化响应能力。
There is an optimal matching relation between industrial structure and urbanization. This paper defines the level 3 response model of ur banization response to industrial structure evolution from theory, China belongs to the intermediate response mode currently, and it is going to en- ter the advanced response mode. Statistical analysis shows that Chinese industrial structure and employment structure is not coordinated, it causes that the urbanization response is not consistent with the theory. Further research by using the vector autoregressive model suggests that the second and the tertiary industry can give urbanization an effective positive impact, but the rapid development of the urbanization cannot give the second and the tertiary industry strong support in China. Therefore China should enhance the ability of urbanization response to industrial structure evolution through technological innovation and agglomeration effects.