中文摘要：

随着农村体制改革的深化，迫切需要建立和完善农村保障制度。文章比较了新旧农村养老保险制度的差异，并以青岛市城阳区新型农保制度实行四年来真实的参保率数据为基础，应用生命表、系统仿真等技术对青岛市城阳区总基金发展趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明，基于有限财政责任的理念，青岛市建立新型农村养老保险制度的时机已经成熟。

英文摘要：

With the reform of rural economy system, it is more and more imminent to perfect the rural social safeguard system in China. Based on the analysis of the old rural old-age insurance system, a new system is explored and exemplified by the data of the real insurance rate of the past four years in Chengyang District of Qingdao. By means of the technique of life table and computer simulation, this article predicts the trend of the total fund in Chengyang, qualitatively analyzes the success of the new rural social old age insurance system and gives some advice on the aspect of fund survey.