本文选择东部沿海"国家两大发展战略"交汇城市——南通市作为研究区,面对其新形势下的用地需求与矛盾,综合运用建设用地变化测度指标、城乡建设用地协调评价模型、地理探测器等多种研究方法,分析了2001-2011年南通市城乡建设用地演变时空特征及形成机理,结果表明:①南通市城镇用地扩张速度具有明显的阶段性与波动性,空间分布呈现"北高南低、西高东低、沿江高于沿海"的特征,同时其扩张弹性系数总体处于较高水平,未达到理想集约利用状态;②南通市农村居民点用地在城镇化推进下并未与农村人口非农化减少相挂钩,在研究期内基本处于加速增长态势,空间分布表现为"中部沿海扩展、南北沿江减少"的特征,过半数区、县(市)农村居民点用地增长模式属于人减地增粗放型;③全市城乡建设用地变化不甚协调,多数区、县(市)农村居民点用地增加量大于城镇用地增加量,且城镇发展不能较好满足城镇人口增长需要,在一定程度上影响了城镇化质量;④城乡建设用地变化形成机理差异显著,城镇用地增长受控于多种复杂因素,影响力最高的为城镇居民社会生活状况,而农村居民点用地变化则更多依赖于区位因素条件的影响,表现出其用地变化的先天依赖性与变化单一性。
Under the situation of two national development strategies,Nantong city is facing a contradiction between construction land demand and agricultural land protection. Here,statistical analysis was used to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban-rural construction land in Nantong city from 2001 to 2011. An evaluation model was then built for testing the coordinating relationship between urban and rural construction land under rapid urbanization. Finally, the geographical detector was applied to find the main driving factors. We found that the annual speed of urban sprawl followed a characteristic of phased increasing trend and periodical fluctuation; higher ones existed in the northern and western part of Nantong and the region along the Yangtze River. Urban elasticity was at a high level during the study period. The growth in rural construction land in Nantong city has accelerated since 2001. Four counties reflected an extension of rural construction land while rural population declined gradually. Through the evaluation model, it was clear that the inter-change of urban-rural construction land was not coordinated from 2001 to 2011. The increase in rural construction land is higher than that of urban construction land in most counties. Results from the geographical detector showed that living standards had the greatest effect on the growth of urban construction land,while location condition was the most important driving factor accounting for the change in rural construction land. Driving factors are various and complex for the change in urban construction land,but simple for that of rural residential land.