中文摘要：

对甲烷湿地排放模型CH4MODWetland进行灵敏度分析表明，环境驱动因素——温度和地表水深是影响甲烷排放通量的主要因素，地表水深对季节性积水沼泽甲烷排放通量的灵敏度大于常年积水沼泽。模型对植物和土壤输入参数的灵敏度响应依次为Wmax（地上生物量最大值）〉FR（地下净初级生产力占植物总净初级生产力的比例）〉fv（植被类型系数）〉TAmax（植物从生长初期到最大地上生物量所需有效积温）〉p（容量），OM（-k壤有积质含量）〉SAND（土壤砂粒含量）。以经验水位模型驱动CH4MODWetland，模拟三江平原毛果苔草和小叶章沼泽（1950年代-2000年代），以及若尔盖高原木里苔草和乌拉苔草沼泽（1960年代-2000年代）多年甲烷排放通量的变化。结果表明，年代际甲烷排放通量的变化主要受降水量的影响，但气候变暖使得降水量基本相同的年代甲烷排放通量增加：三江平原毛果苔草沼泽和小叶章沼泽（1980年代～2000年代比1950年代～1970年代模拟的甲烷排放通量分别增加了9．5％和8．3％；若尔盖高原乌拉苔草沼泽和木里苔草沼泽（1990年代-2000年代比1960年代-1970年代）分别增加了6．0％和5．5％。该结论能够为评估未来气候变化对中国湿地甲烷排放的影响提供依据。

英文摘要：

Sensitivity analysis of the biogeophysical model called CH4MODWetland showed that environmental driving factors such as temperature and standing water depth are the most sensitive contributors to CH4 fluxes from natural wetlands. The response of CH4 fluxes to standing water depth is more sensitive in seasonal flooded wetland than in continuously flooded wetland. The sensitive significance of the model to input parameters increased in the order of the maximum aboveground biomass, the proportion of below-ground biomass to total production biomass, the vege- tation index, the required accumulated temperature for reaching maximum biomass, and soil input parameters. The empirical equations of water table are used to support the CH4MODWetland in order to simulate the variations of CH4 fluxes from the 1950s to the 2000s in Sanjiang Plain and from the 1960s to the 2000s in Zoigfi Plateau. The interannual change in CH4 fluxes is mainly affected by precipitation, while the climatic warming enhanced the CH4 fluxes from wetlands during similar precipitation years. In the Sanjiang Plain, the simulated CH4 fluxes increased by 9.5% and 8. 3% from the 1980s to the 2000s compared with those from the 1950s to the 1970s in the marshland dominated with Carex lasiocarpa and Deyeuxia angustifoli, respectively. In the Zoig6 Plateau, the simulated CH4 fluxes increased by 6. 0% and 5. 5% from the 1990s to the 2000s compared with those from the 1960s to the 1970s in the peatland dominated with Carex meyeriana and Carex muliensis, respectively. The results of this study may be used to project the effects of future climate change on CH4 emissions from Chinese wetlands.