中文摘要：

为有效提高水位预测精度,利用自回归分布滞后模型,结合站点水深调控计划、水位站流量因素等控制因子及其他相关站点水位信息,提出一种通过分析站点水位时间序列进行预测的方法。针对水位时间序列的特点,从模型选择、模型建模、模型实现开展研究。将该模型与其他常用时间序列预测模型应用于沙市水位站提前一天的水位预测实验及预测时间的扩展性实验,并对实验效果进行分析,结果表明,该模型能较好地拟合水位的变化趋势,提高模型预测的精确度。

英文摘要：

In order to effectively improve the prediction accuracy,this paper proposes a prediction method by analyzing the time series of relevant water level station,which is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag（ ADL） model,combining with the control factors of water flowand the other relevant site location. According to the characteristics of the time series of water level,an investigation is conducted from the model determining,modeling and implementing. The model is applied in the one-day ahead prediction of water level in Shashi water level station with several other commonly used time series forecasting models,and in the tests on the expansibility of prediction length. Experimental results showthat the proposed model can well fit the trend,and achieve high prediction accuracy.