中文摘要：

本文利用1998-2008年中国工业企业数据库，在剔除了短期存活企业的扰动之后，将整体出口强度的变动细分为在位企业效应、进入企业效应和退出企业效应；进而。通过放松边际成本不变假设，从供给面出发，在控制外需、相对出口价格等传统需求面变量的情况下，着重考虑了产能、产能利用率对不同类型企业动态效应的影响。研究发现：第一，在位企业效应高于进入企业、退出企业，是影响出口强度的主体；第二，忽略产能的影响会导致严重的、甚至是根本性的偏误；第三，产能变动影响在位企业效应、进入企业效应和退出企业效应的程度和机制各异。上述结论在加入控制变量、调整变量测度、克服内生性问题之后仍然保持稳健。这些发现对于化解过剩产能、稳定外贸增长等具有重要启示。

英文摘要：

Using data from Chinese industrial enterprise database （1998 -2008）, this paper subdivides the change of overall export intensity into incumbent, entrant and exiter effect after excluding the disturbance from short-lived enterprises. Furthermore, by relaxing the assumption of constant marginal cost and controlling traditional demand side variables, this paper considers the impact of production capacity and capacity utilization on effects of different types of enterprises from supply side. This paper finds ： firstly, the incumbent effect is higher than the entrant and exiter effect, and is the main body influencing the export intensity;secondly, ignoring the impact of production capacity can lead to serious, even fundamental errors; thirdly, the extent and mechanism influencing different effects from change of production capacity are different. The conclusions are still robust after adding control variables, adjusting measurement and overcoming endogeneity. These findings have important implications for the resolution of excess capacity and the steady growth of foreign trade.