本文基于1998-2008年中国工业企业数据,在严格界定企业退出的前提下,利用能控制多重生存期和不可观测异质性的离散时间生存分析方法,检验了中国以不同方式定义的外商投资企业是否存在"自由流动"特性。核心结论有:中国外商投资企业的无条件和条件退出风险均低于内资企业;这一所有权溢价主要源于"干中学"和合资、合作方的"相互学"。另外,企业和产业层面的特征也会对外商投资企业退出风险产生显著影响。上述结论从退出风险的角度为中国坚持扩大外资准入、放松外资股权比例限制等政策提供了经验支撑。
By strictly defining the term "firm exit", this paper, using Chinese Enterprise Database (1998-2008) and discrete survival analysis approach, examines various foreign firms in China under dif- ferent definitions and aims to uncover whether there is footloose problem or not. Our core conclusions in- clude that the unconditional exit probability of China's foreign firms is lower than that of domestic ones, and so is the conditional probability after adding firm-level and industry-level covariates. Furthermore, the own- ership premium, mainly due to learning effect, slows down the decline of survival probability of foreign en- terprises. This paper provides, from the perspective of exit probability, empirical evidence for policies on expanding access to foreign investment and reducing or even abolishing foreign ownership restrictions.