中文摘要：

为了对鄂尔多斯神东矿区煤矿开采引发的地表沉陷进行预测研究,本文结合地表沉陷影响参数和概率积分法,运用多元线性回归方法分析了地表沉陷影响参数与下沉系数之间的函数关系,通过MATLAB计算函数式中相关参数,最终得到预测地表沉陷最大下沉值的经验式。并以鄂尔多斯地区补连塔和上湾煤矿地面实测数据对模型进行实例验证,得到了较好的拟合效果,其相对误差稳定在5%-5%范围内,预测精度高,预测结果可靠。研究结论能够实现利用最大下沉量对地表沉陷灾害的早期识别和预警。

英文摘要：

In order to predict surface subsidence under mining coal in Erdos＇ mining area,this paper was based on subsidence impact parameters and probability integration method,used multiple linear regression method to analysis the functional relationship between subsidence impact parameters and subsidence factor,with the help of MATLAB to compute corresponding parameters of function relationship and got an empirical formula which can predict the maximum subsidence degree of surface subsidence. Then the paper used the measured data of Bulianta and Shangwan mine in Ordos＇ region to verificate the model,and got good fitting effect that the relative error was stabilized the range of- 5% to 5%,got high prediction accuracy and reliable predictions. The conclusion can achieve early identificating and warning surface subsidence disasters in the help of the maximum subsidence.