中文摘要：

基于全球工业化进程中碳排放演进的一般规律,研究了中国碳排放的时间趋势和地区差异。研究发现：从时间趋势来看,中国碳排放尚处于碳排放强度反转后期以及人均峰值到来前期的第二阶段（S2）,基于倒U顶点时间距离的估计,中国人均排放和总量排放的达峰时间分别在2026年和2047年;从地区差异来看,总量聚类分析显示,Ⅲ类地区主要分布在环渤海及周边省份,Ⅰ类地区集中在西部地区,而技术聚类中的Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三类地区分布呈现由南向北过渡的特征。

英文摘要：

Based on the theoretical and empirical research of evolution law of carbon emission among typical countries all over the world during industrialization process, it shows that the intensity of carbon emission, carbon emission per capita and the total amount of carbon emission present a social output-based three inverted ＂U＂curve. Based on the time sequence of the three inverted ＂U＂ curve, the carbon emission during industrialization can be divided into four stages. Under the research framework and combining the status quo study of China, conclusions are as follows：China＇s carbon emission stays in the S2 stage and the peak time of carbon emission per capita and the total amount of carbon emission in China will be in the year of 2036 and 2047 respectively. Based on the cluster analysis on several carbon emission indices, ＂total＂ cluster Class III areas are mainly located in Circum-Bohai Area and surrounding provinces; Class I areas are mainly located in the west of China; ＂technical＂cluster Class I to Class III areas roughly present a transitional indication from the south to the north.