中文摘要：

Link prediction attempts to estimate the likelihood of the existence of links between nodes based on available brain network information, such as node attributes and observed links. In response to the problem of the poor efficiency of general link prediction methods applied to brain networks, this paper proposes a hierarchical random graph model based on maximum likelihood estimation. This algorithm uses brain network data to create a hierarchical random graph model. Then, it samples the space of all possible dendrograms using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Finally, it calculates the average connection probability. It also employs an evaluation index.Comparing link prediction in a brain network with link prediction in three different networks(Treponemapallidum metabolic network, terrorist networks, and grassland species food webs) using the hierarchical random graph model, experimental results show that the algorithm applied to the brain network has the highest prediction accuracy in terms of AUC scores. With the increase of network scale, AUC scores of the brain network reach 0.8 before gradually leveling off. In addition, the results show AUC scores of various algorithms computed in networks of eight different scales in 28 normal people. They show that the HRG algorithm is far better than random prediction and the ACT global index, and slightly inferior to local indexes CN and LP. Although the HRG algorithm does not produce the best results, its forecast effect is obvious, and shows good time complexity.

英文摘要：

Link prediction attempts to estimate the likelihood of the existence of links between nodes based on available brain network information, such as node attributes and observed links. In response to the problem of the poor efficiency of general link prediction methods applied to brain networks, this paper proposes a hierarchical random graph model based on maximum likelihood estimation. This algorithm uses brain network data to create a hierarchical random graph model. Then, it samples the space of all possible dendrograms using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Finally, it calculates the average connection probability. It also employs an evaluation index. Comparing link prediction in a brain network with link prediction in three different networks （Treponemapallidum metabolic network, terrorist networks, and grassland species food webs） using the hierarchical random graph model, experimental results show that the algorithm applied to the brain network has the highest prediction accuracy in terms of AUC scores. With the increase of network scale, AUC scores of the brain network reach 0.8 before gradually leveling off. In addition, the results show AUC scores of various algorithms computed in networks of eight different scales in 28 normal people. They show that the HRG algorithm is far better than random prediction and the ACT global index, and slightly inferior to local indexes CN and LP. Although the HRG algorithm does not produce the best results, its forecast effect is obvious, and shows good time complexity.