中文摘要：

采用传统马尔科夫链、人口加权马尔科夫链及空间马尔科夫链分析中原经济区县域经济增长俱乐部趋同及其演变。研究表明：中原经济区县域经济增长过程中形成了高水平、中高水平、中低水平和低水平等四个趋同俱乐部。其中,低水平趋同俱乐部的稳定性最强且连片扩张。低水平县域向中低水平趋同俱乐部转移的概率与其邻居区域的经济增长水平正相关。中低水平县域更倾向于向低水平趋同俱乐部转移。对于中高水平县域,与经济增长水平越高的县域为邻,其向高水平趋同俱乐部转移的概率越大,反之则反。而高水平县域的经济增长及稳定性受邻居背景的影响较小。最后,根据各类县域不同的经济发展水平,提出了针对性的政策建议。

英文摘要：

By means of the transferring probability matrix of traditional and spatial Markov chains,we investigated the spatial dynamics of regional economical development at the country level in central plains economic zone.Empirical results show that：（ 1） there are exiting four convergence clubs such as high income club,medium high income club,medium low income club and low income club four convergence club. One of the biggest clubs is low income club with stability expansion and enhancing the regional economic growth levels and spatial structure.（ 2） In general,regional neighborhood environment plays an important role in the club transfer. Low income region＇s economic club transfer is positively correlated to its neighbor＇s economic growth level. Medium low regions tend to shift to low income convergence club. For high- income area,with higher levels of economic growth the region is adjacent to the greater the probability of transfer to high- income convergence club and when it is adjacent to the lower area of the level of economic growth,the transition probability to the medium low convergence club is greater. For high convergence club its neighbor regions＇ effect is very poor. Finally,according to different clubs of economic development this paper puts forward some proposals.