中文摘要：

近年来，我国风电产业在大基地规模化开发的思路下高速发展，但弃风限电现象也日益严重。本文采用工程项目财务评价模型和情景分析的方法，对“三北”地区和中东部地区典型省份的风电项目经济性进行了不同情景分析。结果表明，在当前高弃风的情况下“三北”地区风电项目的内部收益率低于行业基准收益率（8％），在机组寿命期内无法收回资本；中东部地区风电项目的经济性指标尽管当前均优于“三北”地区，但其收益前景在可再生能源电价下调的情景下也不明朗。本文建议在“十三五”期间应彻底摈弃大基地建设路径，优化区域布局。针对全国风电收益不能保底的共性问题，政府在加快负荷中心风电开发与就近消纳工作的同时应促使煤电为风电发展让道，并制定合理的保障收益机制，逐步在“十j三五”期间基本实现风电项目的高效利用。

英文摘要：

In recent years, China wind power industry has developed rapidly under the policy guideline of large base and large-scale development, but wind curtailment is also serious and persistent. In this paper, project financial evaluation model and scenario analysis are used to conduct economics sub-scenario analysis for wind power project which invested in typical provinces of ＂Three North＂ region and the eastern. It shows that IRR of wind power projects in ＂Three North＂ area well below the industry benchmark rate of return （ 8% ） . However, the project economic indicators of the eastern region are better than the ＂Three North＂ areas, but its profit prospects in the scenario of reduced tariff are also unpromising. This paper suggests that the path of large base development should be totally abandoned and the optimization of regional distribution during the 13th FYP period is of top priority. The government should accelerate wind power development in the load center and while push coal power to give way to wind power development. A reasonable return guarantee mechanism should be established to gradually achieve efficient integration of installed wind capacity during the 13th FYP period.