全要素生产率是经济可持续增长的源泉。文章运用经验数据和实证检验分析了对外贸易、劳动力转移对全要素生产率的总体影响并对其进行了结构分解。研究结果表明:对外贸易对全要素生产率增长具有倒U型影响,主要源自于进出口贸易对技术进步呈显著的倒U型关系。与此影响相反,进出口贸易对综合技术效率呈正U型影响。劳动力转移可以显著提高综合技术效率而对技术进步具有直接负面效应,但通过推动对外贸易进而提高技术进步的间接促进效应不应被忽视。随着技术势差的缩小,通过对外贸易等渠道获得技术溢出的效应日趋减弱,中国全要素生产率增长应转变为主要依靠自身技术研发和制度创新,同时应注重进一步挖掘农村剩余劳动力转移的潜力。
Total factor productivity( TFP) is the source of the sustainable development of economy. The paper applies experience data and empirical model to analyze the total influence of foreign trade and labor transfer on TFP,and the structure is decomposed. The results show that foreign trade has reverse U-shape effect on TFP growth,due to the significant reverse U-shape relationship of import and export trade on technical progress. However,import and export trade have U-shape influence on comprehensive technical efficiency. Labor transfer can significantly improve the comprehensive technical efficiency but has direct negative impact on technical progress. However,the indirect stimulating effect of promoting foreign trade to improve technical progress cannot be neglected. With the narrowing of technology gap,the effect of getting technology spillover by foreign trade is becoming weaker. Therefore,the growth of China's TFP should be changed to rely more on self RD and institutional innovation while paying more attention to the potential of rural surplus labor transfer.