中文摘要：

[目的]测算南京市都市农业农地利用碳效应,为发展都市农业的其他城市提供可借鉴的低碳经验。[方法]基于化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉、翻耕6个主要方面的碳源,测算南京市1996—2014年的农地利用碳排放量,综合林地、草地、园地3个主要方面的碳汇变化特征,探索农地利用方式变化导致的碳效应。并基于灰色GM（1,1）模型预测南京市农地利用碳排放量趋势。[结果]1996—2014年南京农地利用碳排放量总体呈现“上升—波动—平稳下降”的3阶段特征,纵向来看,2005—2014年林地碳汇、草地碳汇有所下降,但变化趋势不同。横向来看,由于各区承载的城市功能不同,区域碳汇差异较大。从农地利用方式变化的碳效应来看,2000—2008年南京市因生态退耕产生碳汇呈先上升后下降的变化趋势,建设占用导致的碳排放量变化趋势呈现Z字形上升。基于灰色GM（1,1）模型采用等维递补预测方法,预计到2020年该市农地利用碳排放量为1.11×10^5 t。[结论]南京市农地利用碳排放的变化趋势与经济发展和都市农业发展进程密切相关。林地、草地面积的减少降低了原本不高的碳汇效应,并且由于经济发展与城市建设需要,持续上升的建设占用碳排放对南京市碳效应影响巨大。

英文摘要：

[Objective] The carbon effect of urban agricultural land was estimated in Nanjing City to provide development experience for other cities with urban agriculture. EMethods2 The carbon emissions from agricultural land in Nanjing City were calculated from 1996 to 2014 based on six main carbon sources of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural diesel, irrigation and tillage. At the same time, the variations of three main carbon sinks, including forest land, grassland, garden, were explored to illustrate the carbon effects of agricultural land use changes. In the end, the trend of carbon emissions from agricultural land in Nanjing City was predicted based on the gray GM（1,1） model. [Results] From 1996 to 2014, the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Nanjing City showed a three-stage variation of ＂rising-fluctuatingsteady decline＂. Chronically, the carbon sinks of both forest land and grass land decreased from 2005 to 2014, but their decreasing rate was different. From the view of regional comparison, due to the city carrying function was different, regional carbon sinks differed greatly. In terms of the carbon effect of the change of agricultural land use, the carbon sequestration in Nanjing City from 2000 to 2008 increased at first and then deereased; and carbon emission caused by construction occupancy experienced a Z-shaped variation. Based on the gray GM（1,1） model, the isobar metric forecasting method was used. It was estimated that the agricultural carbon use in the city will be 1.11×10^5 t by 2020. [Conclusion] The trend of carbon use in Nanjing City was closely related to the economic development and the process of urban agriculture development. The reductions of forest land and grass land area reduced the original carbon sink effect. And as a result from economic development and urban construction needs, the continued growth in construction land have great impact, which will result in a large number of carbon emissions in Nanjing City.