中文摘要：

目的研究北京市气象因素的长期变化趋势。方法采用非参数Mann—Kendall趋势检验和Sen斜率估计等研究方法对北京市1951—2012年气象因素（包括最高、最低、平均气温，日较温差，相对湿度，气压，日照时数，降雨量）的变化趋势进行分析。结果北京市1951—2012年全年平均、最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势（P〈0．01），年平均气温以0．040℃／年的幅度上升，冬季上升速率最高（0．050℃／年），年平均最高、最低气温上升幅度分别为0．019、0．050℃／年；平均日较温差呈下降趋势，幅度为0．034℃／年；相对湿度、日照时数均呈下降趋势（P〈0．01），幅度分别为0．153％／年、6．941h／年；平均气压呈上升趋势（P〈0．01），幅度为0．026hPa／年；平均降雨量呈下降趋势，但无统计学意义（P〉0．05）。结论1951—2012年北京市气温呈上升趋势，尤以冬季最为明显，而全年平均相对湿度、日照时数呈下降趋势。应进一步开展多地区多中心关于气候变化对人类健康影响的合作性研究。

英文摘要：

Objective To evaluate long-term trends of weather factors in Beijing. Methods Based on the observed data from Beijing between 1951 and 2012, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen＇s slope method were applied to detect and quantify the longterm trends of weather variables （eg, the maximum,minmum,and mean temperature, mean diurnal temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, sunshine duration and precipitation）. Results The annual mean temperature rose significantly during 1951-2012 at the rate of 0.040 ℃/year. The most evident warming occurred in winter, and its mean temperature showed significant increasing at the rate of 0.050 ℃/year. The annual and seasonal mean diurnal temperature decreased significantly at rate of 0.034℃/year. Furthermore, annual mean relative humidity and sunshine duration decreased significantly at the rate of 0.153 %/year and 6.941 h/year, while annual mean atmospheric pressure rose significantly at the rate of 0.026 hPa/year. And annual mean precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in the study period, with no statistical significance. Conclusion The annual mean temperature increases significantly during 1951-2012, with most evident warming in winter. The annual mean relative humidity, sunshine duration decrease gradually. Multi-center researches seem to be essential.