中文摘要：

文章以传统国有企业为研究对象，从其用工计划管控存在的实际问题出发，结合多种人力资源需求预测方法的特点和适用范围，探索构建国有企业人力资源总量、结构、素质需求预测模型体系，并设计具体建模方法与建模步骤，以回答企业未来“需要多少人”、“需要的人如何分布”和“需要什么样的人”的三个核心问题，以帮助国有企业最终实现“控总量、优结构、提素质”的管理目的。

英文摘要：

This paper,based on the actual problems existing in the control of staffing plan,combining the characteristics and applicable scope of many human resource demand prediction methods,takes the traditional state-owned enterprises as the research object, explores the construction of the total,structure and quality demand prediction model system of human resources of state-owned enterprises,and designs the concrete methods and steps of modeling in order to answer three core issues for enterprises’ future development： “how many employees needed”,“how to distribute employees needed” and“what kind of employees needed”,and helps state-owned enterprises to eventually achieve management goal of“control of total number,optimization of structure and improvement of quality”.