文章利用设备工业品与建筑工业品的相对价格指数,构建资本体现式技术进步指数,考察蕴涵在设备投资过程中的资本体现式技术进步动态规律及其与经济增长周期波动关联性。采用小波变换方法分析资本体现式技术进步和经济增长周期波动关联效应,发现短周期资本体现式技术进步与经济增长率的变化特征不同且二者不具有Granger因果关系,中周期资本体现式技术进步与经济增长率变化呈现较强的共变特征且资本体现式技术进步是经济增长的Granger原因,长周期资本体现式技术进步与经济增长率变化呈现完全共变性且存在双向的Granger因果关系,得出二者的周期波动关系显示资本体现式技术进步对经济增长的作用不是体现在短期而是表现为中长期。
The paper uses the comparable price index of the equipment capital and structure capital to construct index of Capital Embodied Technological Progress and analyzes the dynamic character of it in the course of equipment investment and its cycle fluctuation interactive relationship with economic growth.By using the wavelet method to analyze the cycle fluctuation interactive effect between Capital Embodied Technological Progress and economic growth,it shows that in short cycle they are different and there is no Granger cause relation,that in medium cycle there are strong co-volatility and Capital Embodied Technological Progress is cause of economic growth,and that in long cycle they have complete co-volatility and there is the dual causality.Its results point out that the effect of Capital Embodied Technological Progress on economic growth is embodied in medium and long cycle,but not the short one,and therefore it is still the main way of technological progress in China.