为了深化中国经济高增长能否持续性问题的认识,笔者运用DEA—Malmquist生产率指数,通过对1978--2007年面板数据进行分地区和分阶段检验,对比和评价我国省际生产率差异和生产率增长来源问题,指数分解结果表明:30年间中国经济生产率都获得了提高,但生产效率地区和阶段性差异显著,即不同省份和不同时期生产效率与生产率增长来源不同。地区生产效率检验结果类似,其中1978-1991年西部和19922007年东部的生产效率增长最快,中部普遍落后即中部塌陷现象突出,中国地区经济分化并已形成哑铃型增长模式。
In order to further understand the growth duration of Chinese economic growth, the paper uses the Malmquist productivity index,and the panel data of 1978--2007 to make an empirical test of different areas and growth stage to evaluate the question. The empirical test shows that in 30 years Chinese economic productivity rises,but in different areas and stage the productivity is different,and that in 1978--1991 the west is best and in 1992--- 2007 the east is best,the middle always lag, all shows that growth is caved in the middle, Chinese economic growth has become differentiated and has been the dumbbell growth pattern.