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中文摘要：
黄龙西村滑坡位于甘肃天水,属黄土高势能滑坡,滑体体积3.9×105m^3,基底为花岗闪长岩。为了提高滑坡灰色GM（1,1）模型的预测精度,采用一种改变背景值的方法--中心逼近式灰色GM（1,1）模型。通过黄龙西村滑坡实例验证分析,结果表明中心逼近式灰色GM（1,1）模型的预测值与该滑坡实际监测值十分接近,且其残差平方和及平均误差百分比明显比传统灰色GM（1,1）模型的残差平方和及平均误差百分比小,具有较高的预测精度。同时,可通过调整模型中参数m的取值,使中心逼近式灰色GM（1,1）模型具有更高的预测精度。经计算,当m=6时,中心逼近式灰色GM（1,1）模型的预测精度比传统灰色GM（1,1）模型提高了5.34%。
英文摘要：
Huanglongxicun landslide is located in Tianshui city of Gansu province. It belongs to loess landslide with high potential energy. With the volume capacity of 3.9 ×105m^3, its substratum is granodiorite. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of grey GM （1,1 ） model, center approach grey GM （ 1,1 ） model is used in the deformation prediction of Huanglongxieun landslide. It is indicated that the predicting values of center approach GM （ 1,1 ） model are well agreed with monitoring values for the landslide, and have much higher prediction accuracy than that of traditional grey GM（ 1,1 ） model because error sum of squares and error percent for center approach GM （ 1,1 ） model is lower than that of traditional grey GM （ 1,1 ） model. Moreover, the center approach GM （ 1,1 ） model can be improved by adjusting the value of the parameter m in the model. When m is equal to 6, prediction accuracy for center approach GM （ 1,1 ） model is over 5.34% than that of traditional grey GM （ 1,1 ） model.
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