采用LSTVAR模型检验货币政策对私人投资需求的影响是否存在非线性,并采用网格搜索技术检验发生非线性转换的位置和速度。实证结果表明,货币政策存在私人投资的非线性效应。实证结果还表明,当贷款增长率处于12%~24%敏感区时,货币政策通过信用渠道对私人投资需求的作用效果较为显著;当贷款增长率处于小于12%或高于24%的迟钝区时,货币政策通过信用渠道对私人投资需求的作用效果不显著。
We study the nonlinear effect of monetary policy on private investment in China by utilizing the LSTVAR model, as well as the transition location and speed of monetary policy on private investment by employing grid search. We find that: (1) there is a nonlinear effect of monetary policy on private investment; (2) Monetary policy has a significant effect on private investment in the sensitive areas where the loans grow by 12% to 24% through the credit channel. In contrast, monetary policy has little effect on private investment in the insensitive area where the loans grow by lower than 12% or higher than 24%.