中文摘要：

针对中国不断攀升的犯罪率,文章借助1997-2013年中国30个省的面板数据和PMG模型研究了外来人口比重与刑事犯罪率之间的因果关系,并考察了户籍制度在其中起到的作用。研究发现,在过去的户籍制度下,外来人口比重的增加显著提高了刑事犯罪率,但这主要是由外来人口中的暂住人口的增加导致的,户籍迁入人口的增加没有对犯罪率产生显著影响。此外,研究还发现,放松户籍管制、提高外来人口获得当地户口的概率（入户概率）,可以有效地降低刑事犯罪率,而且当入户概率提高到一定程度之后,外来人口的增加将不再对犯罪率产生显著的影响。文章从具有中国特色的户籍制度和犯罪的机会成本出发为理解外来人口与犯罪率二者之间的关系提供了新的视角。

英文摘要：

Using panel data from 1997 to 2013 of China＇s 30 provinces,this paper investigates the causal relationship between proportion of immigrants and crime rate with the PMG model,and examines the role of the hukou system in this relationship. Results show that increase in the proportion of immigrants leads to a significant rise in the crime rate under the current hukou system. Further research differentiating between migrants with local hukou and temporary residents reveals that migrants with local hukou are not significantly related to the crime rate while temporary residents are significantly associated with the crime rate.Rising probability of obtaining a local hukou for immigrants leads to declining crime rate. The expansion of immigrants would no longer increase the crime rates when the probability to obtain a local hukou for immigrants is relatively high. Thus this paper provides a new perspective from the hukou system and the opportunity cost of committing a crime to understand the relationship between immigrants and crime rate.