中文摘要：

根据祁连山区西部托勒气象站与疏勒河上游昌马堡水文站、鱼儿红雨量站的气温、降水、径流等观测数据，对近50年来疏勒河山区流域气温、降水、径流等水循环要素的变化特征与趋势进行了分析。结果表明，近50年来祁连西部山区年平均气温呈持续上升的态势，并在1990年代中期后出现一个突变，突变后气温上升速率较突变前明显加快。从气温的季节变化上看，冬季升温的幅度明显大于其他各季，从气温的区域变化来看，中低山地带的气温升幅要大于中高山地带。分析结果还显示，祁连山区西部年降水量总体上亦呈增长的态势，但年际波动比较剧烈。少雨年主要在1990年代以前，多雨年在近20a；从季节变化上看，夏季降水量变化比较稳定，增减趋势不明显，其他各季降水量均有明显的上升趋势，冬季降水量增幅明显。受降水与气温加速上升所带来的冰雪融水增加的影响，疏勒河出山径流的年：平均与四季流量亦呈显著增加的态势。考虑到山区夏季降水并未增加，故占年径流量比重较大的夏季径流量的增加主要是冰雪融水的贡献。

英文摘要：

The change characteristics and variation trend of some main water cycle factors as air temperature, pre- cipitation and runoff in the upper Shulehe River basin located in the western wanning are analyzed based the observational data at Tuole weather station, Qilian mountain area under climate Changmabu hydrological station and Yuerhong precipitation stations in this paper. The results show that the climate in study area has become more and more wet and warm in the past 50years because of the influence of global wanning. The mean temperature of year and every season seasonal all have been presenting a rising and increasing trend in the area. The precipitation of year and every season except summer also all have been presenting an increasing trend in the area as a whole, and the annual fluctuation of precipitation variation is quite obvious, especially for the precipitation during flood season. The mountain runoff of the Shulehe River basin also has been presenting an increasing trend because the precipitati- on in the zones which elevation are below 3 000 m and Ice and snow melt-runoff in the high elevation zones above 3 000 m all obviously increase. The reason of summer runoff increase mainly is the increase of snow and ice melt water supply from the zones above 3 000 m because the summer precipitation did not increase.