中文摘要：

采用CA-Markov模型方法,基于3期湿地景观数据,模拟盐城自然保护区核心区湿地景观在不同条件下的时空演变过程,探讨自然及人为因素对核心区湿地景观的影响及变化趋势。模拟结果显示,人为管理改变了核心区北部湿地景观演变过程,1987—2007年芦苇沼泽带和米草沼泽带的宽度迅速增加,其面积比例分别由5.62%、1.91%增为60.20%、7.78%,碱蓬沼泽面积比例则由67.50%减为7.21%,湿地景观分布由4个带（芦苇沼泽—碱蓬沼泽—米草沼泽—光滩）逐渐演变为3个带（芦苇沼泽—米草沼泽—光滩）,到2013年核心区北部碱蓬沼泽将逐渐消失。核心区东南部景观结构以自然演替为主,1987—2007年米草沼泽由零星斑块扩展为带状分布,面积比例由2.75%增为36.54%,光滩面积比例由65.44%减为26.85%,芦苇沼泽面积持续增加,河流和碱蓬沼泽变化不大,未来米草沼泽扩张速率将有所下降,其他湿地类型仍保持类似的变化趋势,湿地景观分布由3个带（芦苇沼泽—碱蓬沼泽—光滩）逐渐演变为4个带（芦苇沼泽—碱蓬沼泽—米草沼泽—光滩）。

英文摘要：

Based on the data of the three phases of wetland landscape evolution,the CA-Markov model was used to simulate temporal and spatial evolution processes of wetland landscape of the core area of Yancheng Nature Reserve as affected by different conditions,with a view to exploring impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on the landscape of the area and trend of its evolution.Results show that human management altered the evolution processes of the wetland landscape in the northern section of the core area.During the period from 1987 to 2007,the reed marsh belt and the Spartina alterniflora marsh belt expanded rapidly in width,with their proportion in area increasing from 5.62% to 60.20%,and from 1.91% to 7.78%,respectively,thus cutting the proportion of seepweed marsh from 67.50% to 7.21%.Its wetland landscape gradually changed in composition from four distinct belts（reed marsh-seepweed marsh-Spartina alterniflora marsh-mudflat） to three（reed marsh-Spartina alterniflora marsh-mudflat） and by 2013,the belt of seepweed marsh will have disappeared in the northern section.In the southeastern section of the core area,natural succession dominated the evolution of the landscape in structure.Dotted patches of Spartina alterniflora marsh in 1987 expanded and merged into a belt in 2007,with its proportion in area increasing from 2.75% to 36.54%.The belt of reed marsh increased steadily in area and the areas of seepweed marsh and rivers remained almost unchanged thus cutting the proportion of mudflat from 65.44% to 26.85%.In the years to follow,the expansion of Spartina alterniflora marsh will slow down,while the other types of wetlands will keep going along their course of evolution.The wetland landscape will evolve in composition from three belts（reed marsh-seepweed marsh-mudflat） to four belts（reed marsh-seepweed marsh-Spartina alterniflora marsh-mudflat）.