选择1991年7月15日—2015年7月15日的上证综指日数据为样本,对传统的M值分布检验方法从模型设定和指标替代两方面尝试改进,就中国资本市场是否存在心理关口效应这一争议性话题进行深入探讨,以期对改善资本市场环境,提高资本市场效率有所助益。研究发现:中国股票指数明确存在着50点位的心理关口;上证综指的市场规模通过改变整个资本市场的整体环境,影响了投资者的心理预期,最终作用于心理关口。
The present essay chooses the Shanghai composite index data from July15,1991to July15,2015as samples,adopts the method of M value distribution test to further discuss whether there is a psychological barrier in Chinese capital market,in order to improve the capital market environment and the efficiency of capital market.However,the results show that after expanding,the test result of the sample is obviously different.Therefore,in the present essay,the traditional method is improved from two aspects:perfect model and benchmark alternative.The study finds that Chinese stock index has the psychological barrier at Point50,and that the size of the market has a certain influence on the psychological barrier through the access of investors'expectation.