中文摘要：

本文首先在开放经济环境下基于传统非套补利率平价理论,将中央银行沟通指示器引入理论模型进行研究。然后以2006年10月-2014年12月期间中国人民银行沟通频数和人民币汇率数据为样本,采用EGARCH模型实证分析了中央银行沟通对人民币汇率波动的总体影响、不同沟通渠道以及口头沟通的不同主体、不同内容和不同货币政策取向沟通对人民币汇率波动的影响程度。实证结果显示：（1）中央银行沟通对人民币汇率波动有较为显著的影响;（2）书面沟通的作用效果优于口头沟通;（3）口头沟通中行长沟通与他人沟通相比更有效;（4）口头沟通中关于货币政策取向沟通的效果优于宏观经济展望;（5）宽松意图沟通的效果优于紧缩意图。本文的研究表明,中央银行沟通可在汇率的预期管理中发挥积极作用,促进汇率平稳波动;在沟通策略上,应注重发展口头沟通,并重视宽松意图沟通的运用。

英文摘要：

Based on the traditional uncovered interest rate parity theory under the open economic environment, this paper introduced the central bank communication indicator to a theoretical model. And then, we use the sample of PBC communication practice and RMB exchange rates from October,2006 to December, 2014, and adopt EGARCH models to analyze the influence of central bank communication on RMB exchange rate volatility, and the extent to which different channels of communication, different content and different communication of the monetary policy direction make influence on RMB exchange rate. The empirical study shows that.. （ 1 ） Central bank communication has certain influence on volatility of RMB exchange rate; （2） The effect of written communication is more obvious than verbal communication; （3） In the verbal communication,presidents＂ communication is more effective than other officers＂ communication; （4） In the verbal communication, the effect of communication of the monetary policy direction is better than that of the c forecasting. （5） The effect of the easy intention is better than that of the tight one. The resuhs of this study indicate that central bank communication plays a positive role in the expected management of the exchange rates. It helps to maintain the stability of the exchange rates. On the strategy of communication, the central bank should pay much more attention to verbal communication. At the same time, it should carry on the central bank presidents＂ communication and communication of the monetary policy direction prudently and effectively, attach great importance to the easy intention of communication of the monetary policy direction in order to improve the effect of communication.