中文摘要：

火炮身管在弹丸发射时反复承受着高温高压火药燃气的冲击载荷,为提高火炮身管的安全性,研究其可靠性具有重要的现实意义。以火炮身管为研究对象,考虑几何和载荷参数的随机性,对其进行参数化建模,通过混合模拟（有限元、蒙特卡罗、响应面三者结合）的方法,通过引入参数灵敏度分析,定量地判定出随机参数对结构响应的影响程度。该方法计算量小,拟合精度高,速度快,可为身管设计提供帮助。

英文摘要：

Gun barrel suffers from heavy impacting load resulted from high temperature and high pressure propellant gases in the process of gun fire.Therefore it is very important to improve the safety and study the reliability of gun barrel.Taking gun barrel as research target,geometrical parameters,material parameters and load parameters of gun barrel were considered as input random variables,a kind of finite element model is built up parametrically.By means of hybrid simulation method（combined FEM,Monte-Carlo with response surface simulation method）,through leading in parameters sensitivities analysis,the influence degree of random input parameters on structure response were quantitatively determined.The analysis results showed that this method has a small amount of calculation,high fitting precision and high speed,it can provide help for gun barrel design and is an ideal method to analyse reliability.