本文以地方融资平台公司发行的城投债为样本,研究来自中央政府的财政转移支付对于地方城投债发行的影响。研究发现,来自中央政府的人均财政专项转移支付每增加1元,会导致地方融资平台公司城投债发行增加人均0.312元,而包括税收返还和一般性转移支付在内的非专项转移支付对城投债的发行并无显著影响。并且,专项转移支付对城投债发行的显著正影响只在中西部省份存在,东部地区并未发现这一机制。本文的进一步研究表明,地方政府债务的借新还旧现象也正在显现,并且变得越来越严重。
China's local government debt stock is immense and still growing rapidly, which brings risks to China's fiscal sustainability and long term economic growth. From the lens of Urban Construction Investment Bonds (UCIB) issued by Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), this paper studies how the fiscal transfer impacts the issuance of UCIB under the context of China's unitary system. Mter using instrumental variable, our findings indicate that special fiscal transfer per capita is positively associated with the issuance of UC- IB; whereas, non- special fiscal transfer (including tax rebate and general fiscal transfer) has nothing to do with the issuance of UCIB. Geographically, the effect of special fiscal transfer on the issuance of UCIB mainly exists in the inland cities instead of the coastal ones. A further study on these effects finds that there is a sharp rise in the phenomenon of paying off the debt stock by issuing more UCIB.