中文摘要：

本文利用全球51个国家或地区1993年至2011年的季度数据重点探讨了国际大宗商品价格冲击对国内通货膨胀的影响作用。在Phillips曲线所突出强调的影响因素中，本文应用现有相关研究结果扩展考察包括全球大宗商品价格变化在内的一些非货币因素的影响效应。在应用多种估计技术下，本文研究表明在不同的大宗商品价格变化指标中食品价格变化在统计意义上显著地影响国内通货膨胀，而且该指标纳入到真实模型的后验包含概率较高。此外，产出缺口、贸易开放度、汇率制度安排、通货膨胀目标制以及政府规制质量等变量也显著影响着国内通货膨胀。

英文摘要：

This paper discusses the inflationary effects of the commodity price shock across countries or regions over the period 1993-2011 using several estimating methods. With the implications from the Phillips curve, this paper examines the effect of non-currency factors on the domestic inflation based on the related theoretical and empirical study. This paper uses several ap- proaches to assess the the effect of commodity price shocks on inflation. Based on the Bayesian Model Averaging method, the evidences suggest that global food price significantly influence the domestic inflation, and the PIP for this variable is also very high. Besides,the output gap, trade openness, exchange rate arrangement, inflation targeting and government governance also have stronge effects on domestic inflation.