中文摘要：

利用中尺度模式WRFV2.2,选取其中NOAH陆面模式进行陆面参数随机扰动试验,模拟研究了南京地区2007年7月8—9日的暴雨对扰动的敏感性。结果表明：（1）此次暴雨过程对陆面参数随机扰动较为敏感,其中对土壤最大容积含水量的扰动最为敏感,对地表反照率的扰动敏感性次之,对地表粗糙度、最小叶孔阻抗扰动的敏感性较前两者要小;（2）降水变化的触发原因是陆面参数扰动引起的通量变化,其主要的机制是通过低层大气环流（如低空急流）和水汽辐合来影响暴雨的落区和强度。

英文摘要：

The simulation of the heavy rainfall occurring in Nanjing during 8 ~9 July, 2007 was conducted to test the sensitivity of the rainfall to the random perturbation of NOAH land surface parameters by using WRFV2.2. The conclusions show： （1） The heavy rainfall is sensitive to random perturbations of the land surface parameters. The maximum volumetric soil water is the most sensitive to disturbance, the second is surface albedo, and the surface roughness length and the minimum stomatal resistance are less sensitive to the disturbance than the first two. （2） These disturbances directly result in the change in the surfaces fluxes, and more importantly, through the change in the low-level circulations （e.g., low-level jet） and moisture convergence, greatly influence the intensity and area of the heavy rainfall.