中文摘要：

本文采用Plumb三维波活动通量和局地Eliassen-Palm通量诊断方法,利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的逐日再分析资料ERA-Interim,分析了超强厄尔尼诺背景下2016年1月下旬中国南方超级寒潮的动力学机制：瞬变波对大气长波异常的调制。前期2015年12月的北大西洋海表热通量正异常,有助于后期大西洋阻塞形势的维持。大气长波能量沿大圆路径从大西洋阻高经乌拉尔地区向东亚中低纬度传播并在此辐合,导致了乌拉尔阻高和华北横槽的经向结构,更多强冷空气聚集在异常偏南的纬向槽线附近。寒潮爆发前夕,2支瞬变波列活跃在亚欧大陆。北支瞬变波列调制了北方的大气长波,使横槽转竖;南支瞬变波列协同调控了南方的大气长波,使南支印缅槽减弱;两者共同作用,促使冷平流大举南下,直达华南沿海,南方寒潮发生。

英文摘要：

A super cold wave occurred in South China in January 2016 against the background of the extremely strong El Nino of 2016/2016. Cities in the Yangtze River Delta experienced their coldest temperatures since 1991; for example,the minimum temperature in Nanjing was- 10 ℃. Also,newrecords for minimum temperature were set in South China; for example,the minimum temperature in Fuzhou was- 1. 9 ℃. To analyze the dynamic mechanism involved,Plumb＇s wave activity flux（ WAF） and local Eliassen-Palm flux were computed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Harmonic analysis along the parallel circles was performed firstly,to extract the 1—4 wave signal,revealing evident modulation by transient waves of the atmospheric longwave anomalies. The previous positive anomaly of the sea surface heat flux in the North Atlantic in December 2015 benefitted the maintenance of the later Atlantic blocking. The energy of the atmospheric long waves was propagated from the Atlantic blocking to the midlatitudes in East Asia along the great circle. The Urals blocking and transverse trough in East Asia developed well. The meridional distribution of the atmospheric disturbance centers led to more cold air in the transverse trough. Before the outbreak of the cold wave,two transient wave trains were located in Eurasia. The northern one lay along western Europe to East Asia and modulated the rotation of the transverse trough. At the same time,the southern one lay along western Europe to the Bay of Bengal and weakened the India-Burma trough.They came together to favor cold advection moving southwards to South China. The cold wave then occurred in South China.