中文摘要：

针对船舶航行行为多维度的特点和船舶交通服务系统（Vessel Traffic Service,VIS）对船舶行为预测的精确度和实时性需求,提出结合船舶自动识别系统（Automatic Identification System,AIS）信息和BP（Back Propagation）神经网络的船舶航行行为预测方法 。构造基于AIS信息的船舶航行行为特征表达方法,根据BP神经网络预测的基本原理,以连续3个时刻的船舶航行行为特征值为输入,以第4个时刻的船舶航行行为特征值为输出,对BP神经网络进行训练,用于对未来船舶航行行为进行预测。以成山角VTS水域内的船舶AIS信息为例进行试验,结果 表明：利用该方法 对船舶航行行为特征值进行预测的结果 准确、实时,误差在可接受的范围内。

英文摘要：

In view of the multi-dimensional characteristics of vessel behavior, a novel method of vessel behavior prediction based on AIS（ Automatic Identification System） data and BP（ Back Propagation） neural network is proposed to satisfy the requirement of VTS（ Vessel Traffic Service ） for accurate real-time vessel behavior prediction. The feature expressions of vessel behavior based on AIS data is established. The training process is as following： the longitude, latitude, heading and speed of a vessel is taken as the ship behavior feature input to the neural network ; data at three consecutive times are input to the network, and the fourth data following the input is output to train the BP neural network. The trained BP neural network is applied to the prediction of vessel behavior. The effectiveness and capability of the proposed method is verified with the AIS data from the waters of Chengshanjiao VTS. The results show that the method can predict the characteristics of vessel behavior timely with acceptable accuracy.