中文摘要：

利用遥感和地理信息系统方法,计算出了定边县1986～2000年土地利用类型转移概率矩阵,初步分析了土地利用的数量变化和各类型间的转化特征,并利用马尔可夫链模型（Markov Chain Model）对今后数年（2015、2030年）土地利用动态变化的趋势进行了定量预测研究.结果表明：2000～2030年,定边县耕地、草地年变化率下降,未利用土地和水域的年变化率基本持平,建设用地增加1 354.58 hm^2,年变化率为0.83%,增加趋势显著.定边县土地利用类型之间发生了较为复杂的变化,土地利用向良性化发展,少量草地又有沙化趋势.随着人口增加和经济的发展,建设用地增加趋势显著.

英文摘要：

By using remote sensing image and GIS spatial analysis techniques, the land use changes and conversion characteristic of Dingbian county in 1986～2000 were studied. And its trend of land use dynamic changes in the year 2015 and 2030 were predicted by Markov Process model. Result showed that the annual change rates of cultivated land and grass land would decrease from the year 2000 to 2030, while those of unused land and water area had no significant change. Construction land would increase by 1 354.58 hm2 and its change rate would be 0.83 %. The land use type would have complex changes in Dingbian county. There would be benign development trend in land use. And a few grass lands would become sanded. Construction land would increase with population growth and economic development.