中文摘要：

运用Excel软件，在分析河南省改革开放以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上，分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点；运用预测理论对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示：1978年以来，虽然河南省人均耕地面积持续减少，但由于耕地生产率不断提高，粮食产量和人均占有量却在持续增加，最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势。未来15年最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数将进一步降低。可见，依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率，是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全生产的根本途径。

英文摘要：

This paper, helped by Excel software and based on the analysis of dynamic fluctuation of cropland, population and grain output since Henan Province opened to the outside world, analyzes variant characteristics of minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland. Adopting the predictive theory, it also makes a prediction of its population, grain output and minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland in the coming 15 years with the following research result： since 1978, although cropland acreage per capita has been on the decrease against the boost of cropland productivity, grain output and per capita quota has been on the increase, with the tendency of decrease in minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland. The coming 15 years will see a continuous decrease in minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland. Hence, it is the only fundamental channel to rely on increasing investment and scientific advancement, boost cropland productivity, alleviate cropland pressure and guarantee grain production.